时间：2023年5月19日12:00-13:30（周五）

地点：明德主楼729

主讲人：闫巨博，新加披南洋理工大学

主题：Interpersonal Projection Bias in Predicting Consumption Utility: An Experimental Test

■ 讲座简介：

The ability of predicting others” preference and behavior is crucial indecision making. Yet people seem to be overly influenced by their own preference when predicting others behavior (le., false consensus).l ask whether such mispredictions are due to the lack of information or interpersonal projection bias: We report results from a laboratory experiment that tries to disentangle the underlying reason of false consensus. The experiment utilizes a natural variation in own state (full vs hungry) to examine how experimental subjects predict others: behavior when they are incentivized to guess a randomly chosen subject's (i) hunger level, (ii) willingness to pay (WTP) for food items, and (iii) WTP for nonfood items. I then provide subjects the objective information to observe their respond to the information update. interestingly, when the objective information is provided, our subjects do not update their predictions to the full extent. Our results (i) confirm the false consensus in predicting contemporary consumption value: (ii) show that the interpersonal project bias in a main driving force behind false consensus.

■  个人简介：

Jubo Yan is an assistant professor in the School of Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics and Management from Cornell University in 2015. His main research interests are behavioral and experimental economics with a focus on individual decision making and belief formation Jubo has published in journals such as journal of Public Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management and journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. He is also the associate editor of China Economic Review.